Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], September 21 (ANI): The Indian rupee opened weaker on Monday, with analysts maintaining a cautious near-term outlook and warning that a sustained move above 96 against the US dollar could trigger further depreciation, though the currency has a higher probability of consolidating around 95.20–95.30 in the near term.
The rupee opened at 95.82 against the US dollar on Monday and was trading around 95.78 at 10:34 am, following a volatile previous week in which the currency touched 96.10 on Thursday.
As per currency expert K N Dey, the volatility is expected to continue going forward on account of the continuing Middle East conflict and the hanging sword of US tariffs on India.
“We neither cannot avoid Russian oil nor at the same time afford the pressure of US Tariffs,” he said, highlighting, with the probability of Banks' strike from 28th to 30th September followed by 2nd October bank holiday, there would be only one working day in the coming week, i.e., 1st October.
As per Dey, RBI’s intervention in the currency market would continue to avoid any undue speculative volatility. “There is a high chance of Rupee correcting back towards 95.20/30 levels shortly,” he noted.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted, “The rupee has found some relief as crude prices have eased, trading below the Rs 95.80 level against the dollar in early trade.”
The currency nevertheless remains sensitive to oil prices, global yields and foreign portfolio flows, as per Ponmudi.
At the same time, USD/INR is testing the 95.70–95.80 support zone, trading marginally lower on the day by 0.12%.
“Immediate resistance is placed at 96.00–96.10, with a sustained break above this zone opening the way toward the next resistance at 96.40–96.50. On the downside, a decisive break below 95.70 could extend the pair’s weakness toward the next support at 95.40–95.50,” Ponmudi noted.
As per Ponmudi, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 61, remaining elevated but easing slightly from recent highs, indicating that bullish momentum is moderating.
Also, with crude oil prices easing on signs of a recovery in Saudi exports, one of the key pressure points on the rupee has softened somewhat today.
“From the rupee’s perspective, the near-term bias remains cautious above 95.70, while a sustained move above 96.00 would signal renewed weakness in the currency. A break below 95.50, meanwhile, could provide further relief to the rupee,” he noted. (ANI)
Rupee volatility likely to persist; possible consolidation around 95.20–95.30: Experts
